The monsoon forecast India 2026 is carrying more uncertainty than it has in years, and a few early signals are genuinely uncomfortable. IMD’s official long-range forecast doesn’t drop until April. But the climate indicators we have right now? Worth paying attention to, especially if you farm, manage water, or just want to plan ahead.
Nobody can give you exact numbers yet. What I can give you is an honest read of the signals.
Read More: Tech Layoffs 2026: Companies, Numbers & What’s Next
Why the Monsoon Forecast India 2026 Has Farmers and Forecasters Both a Bit Nervous
Let me start with last year, because context matters here.
2025 was a pretty good monsoon. IMD called it at around 105% of Long Period Average – that’s the benchmark figure they use – and it mostly held up. Crops were decent, reservoirs filled, no major drought crisis. People exhaled.
But the monsoon forecast India 2026 doesn’t feel the same way going in.
The thing is – meteorologists don’t just look at clouds. They watch the Pacific Ocean. They watch the snow in Siberia. They track sea temperatures off the coast of Somalia. All of it connects. And right now, a few of those indicators are pointing in a direction India doesn’t love.
The big one is El Niño. For anyone unfamiliar, El Niño is when the central and eastern Pacific warms up more than usual. Sounds unrelated to India, right? But that warming throws off the entire global circulation of winds and moisture. For India specifically, El Niño years have historically meant the monsoon arrives weaker, sometimes later, sometimes both.
Skymet – India’s main private forecasting agency – flagged early in 2026 that El Niño could start developing through the June-to-September window and peak sometime in winter. If it builds strength right during the monsoon season, which is what their models suggest, then the monsoon forecast India 2026 for central and northwest India points to a real risk of below-normal rains.
I’m not saying brace for disaster. The weather is genuinely unpredictable at this range. But the signal is there, and it’s worth taking seriously.
How IMD’s Monsoon Forecast India 2026 Actually Works – Because Most People Don’t Know
Before the state-wise stuff, a quick explanation of the forecast process. Lots of confusion about this.
In late May, they release a follow-up with regional breakdowns. Northwest India, central India, the south peninsula, and northeast. That’s the one actually useful for planning at a more local level.
After that, monthly updates keep coming through June, July, and August.
So anyone right now claiming to give you exact figures for specific cities – that’s not real data. What I can do is use the current climate signals and what we know from past El Niño years to give you a reasonable state-by-state picture. Call it an informed read, not a forecast.
The four things IMD leans on most:
Indian Ocean Dipole – same basic concept but in the Indian Ocean. A positive IOD helps India. Right now it’s sitting neutral. No help there.
Eurasian snow cover – I know, sounds strange. But heavier-than-normal snowfall in central Asia and Europe during winter is actually correlated with weaker monsoons months later. The mechanism involves pressure changes. It’s real even if it sounds weird.
Sea surface temperatures near India affect how much moisture the winds pick up off the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal on their way in.
All four of those, right now, add up to: cautious. Not catastrophic. Just cautious.
State-wise Outlook for Monsoon Forecast India 2026
Here’s the part you came for. I’ll be straight about what the signals suggest, keeping in mind the official picture comes in April.
Monsoon Forecast India 2026: Kerala and the South Peninsula
Every year, Kerala is where the story begins. The southwest monsoon typically arrives around June 1 – sometimes you see it coming from the colour of the sky two days before, that particular shade of grey-green that means it’s close. When it hits, it hits hard. Rivers surge. Roads flood within hours.
In El Niño years, that arrival can slip. Three days, a week, occasionally two weeks late. For most people that’s just inconvenient. For farmers who plan their paddy transplanting around the onset date, it creates genuine stress – a late start compresses the entire growing season.
The wider south peninsula – Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, coastal Karnataka – is somewhat more protected from El Niño’s effects than central India. The Bay of Bengal branch of the monsoon still pushes into this region with decent force even in weaker years.
Tamil Nadu gets its own separate lifeline anyway – the northeast monsoon from October to December. And here’s the twist: El Niño actually boosts that northeast monsoon. So Tamil Nadu often compensates in October for what it missed in July. Farmers there have been reading that pattern for generations.
2026 expectation for the south: near-normal to slightly below-normal. Not the most worrying region on the map.
Monsoon Forecast India 2026: Maharashtra, Goa, and the Konkan Belt
Goa during the monsoon is something else. The rain doesn’t politely announce itself – it just arrives one afternoon and doesn’t really leave for three months.
Even in bad monsoon years, this mechanism doesn’t completely shut off. So Konkan and Goa tend to hold up.
Interior Maharashtra is another matter entirely. Vidarbha. Marathwada. These areas sit on the other side of that barrier – the rain shadow zone. What gets through is already much less.
Entire talukas are dependent on tanker water. Farmer suicide numbers that made national news. A below-normal 2026 monsoon would put that region back under pressure very quickly.
If you’re involved in agricultural finance, crop insurance, or policy work in Maharashtra, the interior districts deserve close watching this season.
Monsoon Forecast India 2026: Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh
MP and Chhattisgarh fall in what IMD calls the Monsoon Core Zone. It’s basically the region most directly tied to monsoon performance – when the rains are heavy here, everything works. When they’re not, the whole agricultural economy of this belt takes a hit.
El Niño historically produces its most significant rainfall deficits right across this zone. In stronger El Niño events, we’ve seen deficits of 15 to 20% below normal. For farmers growing rice, soybean, and pulses on pure rainfed land – no borewells, no canals, just what falls from the sky – 15% less rain is not a minor statistic. It’s the difference between a functional harvest and a crisis.
Watch IMD’s April announcement carefully if you have any connection to this region. And the late May regional breakdown is even more closely.
Monsoon Forecast India 2026: Rajasthan and Gujarat
Within a single state, Rajasthan holds two completely different weather worlds. Western Rajasthan – the Thar – might get 150 mm in a good monsoon year. Eastern Rajasthan near Kota can get 700 mm. Drive from Jaisalmer to Jhalawar and you go through an entirely different climate.
El Niño squeezes the western half harder. Groundwater there is already at concerning depths in many districts – this isn’t a new problem, it’s been building for fifteen years. Another deficit year doesn’t help.
Monsoon Forecast India 2026: Uttar Pradesh and Bihar
Bihar is genuinely complicated. It’s not just about how much rain falls in Bihar – it’s about what’s happening in Nepal and across the upper Ganga catchment. Rivers like the Kosi and the Gandak originate far outside Bihar. One intense monsoon week in Nepal can cause catastrophic flooding in north Bihar even during a season where overall Bihar rainfall looks below normal on paper. It’s a state where the aggregate number tells maybe half the story.
Signal for 2026: below-normal to near-normal across UP-Bihar. Not the highest-risk zone but not comfortable.
Monsoon Forecast India 2026: Northeast – Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh
So even in El Niño years, the northeast typically holds up much better than central or northwest India. The hills, the Bay of Bengal proximity, the funnelling effect of the terrain – it all keeps moisture flowing in.
The worry isn’t total rainfall. Its distribution. Not weeks of steady rain but sudden extreme events on river systems that are already stressed. That risk doesn’t go away – and arguably gets worse – even if the seasonal total looks acceptable.
Monsoon Forecast India 2026: Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and J&K
The hill states get their monsoon later – mostly July onwards, after the system has moved across the plains. Western disturbances in winter are actually their other major rainfall source, separate from the monsoon altogether.
First, hydropower generation – many projects in this region run on a combination of snowmelt and monsoon rain, and a shortfall in July-August affects power output well into autumn. Second, apple farming in Himachal.
Read More: India Election Results 2026: State-wise Winner Analysis
FAQ: Monsoon Forecast India 2026
What is the Monsoon Forecast India 2026 for the Whole Country?
Official word from IMD comes in April 2026. What the current signals suggest – based on possible El Niño development and the fading of La Niña – is a season carrying above-average risk of below-normal rainfall, especially across central and northwest India. Southern states and the northeast look more resilient.
Will El Niño Affect the Monsoon Forecast India 2026?
It’s the central concern right now. Skymet’s models show El Niño potentially building through June-September and peaking in winter. If it strengthens mid-season, central India and Rajasthan take the biggest hit. Exact impact depends on how intense El Niño gets – and that’s genuinely unknown at this point.
How Reliable is the Monsoon Forecast India 2026 Made Months in Advance?
At the all-India level, fairly reliable for direction. Below-normal years tend to be called correctly more often than not. District or city-level precision at this range is genuinely not possible – too many within-season variables. Think of it as a risk assessment, not a prediction.
