Kerala monsoon 2026 date is expected around June 1st, which is IMD’s long-standing normal, and so far, 2026 hasn’t given us a strong reason to shift that window. But there’s an undercurrent of anxiety this year that I don’t usually feel in February, and honestly, it comes down to what’s happening way out in the Pacific Ocean right now.
IMD’s official forecast won’t land until April. So what you’re reading right now is based on early climate signals, and some of them are mixed enough that I think it’s worth sitting down and going through all of it properly.
Let me do that the way I always do – straight, without the jargon overload.
Read More: Top 15 Must-Visit Places in India in 2026
I’ve Been Tracking Kerala Monsoon 2026 Date Every Year and I Can’t Stop
Okay so here’s something about me that my family finds slightly annoying. Every year, right around this time – late February, early March – I go deep into monsoon research mode. Not because it’s my job.
So every year I track it.
But for 2026, I’ll say this – I’m watching more closely than usual, and I’ll explain exactly why.
Kerala Monsoon 2026 Date – What We Know Right Now
The June 1 Benchmark for Kerala Monsoon 2026 Date
Southwest monsoon over Kerala – normal onset is June 1st. IMD has been saying this for years and the long-term data backs it up.
That feels right based on current conditions. But IMD will give a much sharper prediction in May – that’s when you should really be tracking their announcements.
What Kerala Monsoon 2026 Date Arrival Actually Means
This took me a while to figure out properly. I used to think heavy rain = monsoon arrived. Not how it works.
IMD won’t declare onset until a very specific set of conditions is ticked off at the same time. First, at least 60% of 14 weather stations spread across Kerala – Thiruvananthapuram, Kochi, Kozhikode, Thrissur and so on – need to log 2.5 mm or more of rain on two days back to back.
But that’s just one part of it and satellite data showing cloud cover – something called Outgoing Longwave Radiation – needs to fall below a certain value.
Miss even one of those conditions and IMD won’t call it. All four have to line up together. I always explain it like this – just because you have rice and dal doesn’t mean lunch is ready.
Will the Kerala Monsoon 2026 Date Bring Good or Bad Rainfall?
This is what farmers, tourists, and basically anyone in Kerala actually wants to know. And right now, the honest answer is – it’s genuinely uncertain.
La Niña Is Leaving – What It Means for Kerala Monsoon 2026 Date
As of early 2026, we’re still sitting in a weak La Niña phase. If you follow monsoon stuff even loosely, you’d know that La Niña is pretty much the best possible setup for Indian monsoon rainfall. It’s why 2025 was predicted at around 105% of the Long Period Average and why it arrived early.
The problem is that La Niña is fading. And it’s fading quickly.
The US Climate Prediction Center and Skymet are both pointing toward ENSO-neutral conditions setting in between February and April 2026. That shift alone isn’t terrible. But what comes after is the part that’s got forecasters nervous – some of them are already flagging an El Niño risk building in the second half of 2026.
El Niño works in the opposite direction. It warms the central Pacific, messes with atmospheric circulation patterns, and weakens the winds that pull moisture toward India. What usually follows is patchy, below-normal rainfall – particularly in August and September.
What Happens If ENSO Stays Neutral Before Kerala Monsoon 2026 Date?
In a neutral year – broadly speaking – June and July tend to behave normally. The risk zone for 2026, if El Niño does nudge in, would be August and September. Keep that window in mind.
Four Things That Actually Decide the Kerala Monsoon 2026 Date
The Somali Jet – There’s this low-level wind current over the Arabian Sea, called the Somali Jet that acts like a delivery truck for moisture. Every summer, it strengthens and starts pushing that moisture northward toward the Western Ghats. When it fires up on schedule, the monsoon arrives on schedule.
ENSO – Covered this already. The Pacific conditions between March and May will tell us a lot about whether 2026 ends up being a comfortable monsoon year or a stressful one.
Kerala Monsoon 2026 Date: What Travelers and Farmers Should Actually Do
If you’re visiting Kerala to experience the monsoon, go in late May to mid-June. The opening week or two of the monsoon season is genuinely something.
If you’re trying to avoid getting drenched, August to September might actually work in your favour in 2026, especially if El Niño suppresses rainfall during that stretch. Though, of course, that’s a blessing for tourists and a headache for everyone else.
For farmers, the June and July rains are what matter most. Rice, rubber, coconut – all of it depends on getting that early monsoon water on time. If June cooperates, most Kharif crops should be okay.
When Will IMD Release the Official Kerala Monsoon 2026 Date Forecast?
April 2026 – that’s when the first proper long-range forecast comes out. It’ll give an overall picture of the season’s rainfall relative to normal.
May 2026 – IMD releases a more specific onset date prediction for Kerala around this time.
Late May into early June – daily monitoring kicks in, and updates come regularly from then on.
Until April, everything you read – including this article – is based on early climate signals.
Read More: Monsoon 2026 Forecast: State-wise Rainfall Predictions
FAQ – Kerala Monsoon 2026 Date
What Is the Kerala Monsoon 2026 Date According to IMD?
June 1st that is the long-term normal onset date of the southwest monsoon over Kerala, which ends up being calculated using decades of history.
How Does IMD Officially Announce the Kerala Monsoon 2026 Date?
Four criteria must be met concurrently – the 2.5mm or more of rain received on at least 2 consecutive days on 14 designated weather stations in Kerala, the westerly winds must be of up to 600 hPa, the wind speed in the Arabian Sea must be 15 to 20 knots in 925 hPa and satellite OLR data must be below the threshold. It is not only two or three but all four.
Is It Safe to Visit Kerala Around the Monsoon 2026 Date?
Yes, with some planning. The backwater and coastal regions of June and early July are all directly manageable – it nearly always rains every day but with nothing alarming in the majority of cases. The hills are another matter; Idukki, Wayanad and Munnar may have severe spells with a landslide threat. Before visiting the hill stations during the monsoon period, always be aware of the state disaster management advisories. In case El Niño happens to suppress rainfall in August and September, then that period would also be okay to travel.
